XRP, the cryptocurrency created by Ripple Labs, has recently regained momentum, bouncing back to above $2.42 on Friday after hitting a low of $1.90 earlier in the week—a notable 28% recovery. This surge has much to do with the latest developments involving the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), particularly the agency’s acknowledgment of XRP ETF filings. With the excitement around ETF approvals, the burning question is: how high can XRP climb if altcoin ETFs get the green light this year?
### XRP Crosses $2.4 on Regulatory Developments
The recovery of XRP can also be attributed to the possibility of it being classified as a commodity by the SEC as settlement talks with Ripple are underway. This change in regulatory stance could be transformative, alleviating existing legal ambiguities surrounding XRP and opening the floodgates for larger institutional investments. Recent reports indicate that SEC officials are weighing whether XRP should be treated similarly to Bitcoin and Ethereum, both of which are recognized as commodities under U.S. law.
If XRP secures this designation, it could be a game-changer for an XRP ETF’s chances of approval. Historically, rumors of regulatory shifts have had a powerful impact on pricing; for instance, in the past, similar speculation saw XRP’s price skyrocket from $0.90 to $3.10 within a mere two months. Given today’s climate, once again, XRP’s price may eye a retest of the critical $3 level, contingent on ETF approvals.
### The Potential Timeline for XRP ETF Approval
Determining when the SEC will approve XRP ETFs remains speculative but hinges largely on the outcome of ongoing legal battles. The SEC is currently scrutinizing numerous crypto ETF applications, including ones for XRP and Ethereum. Industry analysts anticipate that an XRP ETF could see approval by late Q3 or early Q4 in 2025, depending heavily on how Ripple’s legal issues unfold.
Should Ripple successfully navigate a settlement and XRP achieve commodity classification, the path for ETF approval would seem much more assured. Drawing from the trajectory of Bitcoin’s ETF movements, which triggered significant institutional inflows and led to new all-time highs in early 2024, XRP may enjoy a similar trajectory. Analysts predict that if an XRP ETF materializes, it could bring in more than $5 billion in investor interest shortly after launch, with potential price forecasts shooting up to $10 in the short term and possibly reaching $20 if the market sustains a bullish cycle.
### Ripple’s Road to a $200 Billion Market Cap
As of now, XRP is trading around $2.42 with a current market cap of approximately $140 billion, down from a recent high of $3.10. To break into the coveted $200 billion club, XRP’s price would need to surpass the $3.40 mark—a level many believe could be reached if ETF approvals occur and institutional demand mirrors the surge seen when Bitcoin derivatives were released in early 2024.
XRP’s recent price activity indicates a promising rebound, securing its place above $2.40 as bullish momentum begins to build. Following a 28% increase over just four days, technical indicators reveal that additional upside could be on the horizon. The Donchian Channel’s upper band indicates a resistance level at $2.99, with the mid-band around $2.44 currently serving as a short-term pivot point. A decisive breakthrough above these levels could propel XRP towards the $2.60-$2.80 range, paving the way for testing new heights.
### Analyzing Crypto Market Sentiment
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown signs of positivity, climbing to 50.89 and crossing above the signal line at 47.64, which bodes well for bullish momentum. This shift in the RSI structure corresponds with increased trading volume recently, which has surpassed 1.13 billion—an indicator of rising investor interest in XRP. Should the RSI continue to climb toward the 55-60 mark, it would likely confirm sustained buying pressure, helping to push the price closer to the crucial $2.99 resistance level.
On the flip side, XRP faces the risk of backsliding if it fails to maintain support at around $2.30, which could lead to a drop back toward the $1.90 support level. However, the current trends in increasing volume and positive RSI suggest a bullish bias remains intact.
If XRP’s price manages to hold above $2.44, it could sustain its upward trajectory, potentially aiming for the $2.80 region, with a decisive breakout above $2.99 potentially leading to a resurgence toward the $3.40 level, breaking Ripple’s market valuation above the $200 billion line.
